How flagged stocks performed 30, 90 and 180 days after each verified red flag, compared with the S&P 500 ETF (SPY). 9,771 events since 2024-10-17; 8,025 (82%) have price data at the flag date. Only fully elapsed windows are counted; the rest are shown as pending.
| Group | 30 days after | 90 days after | 180 days after | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| n | median return | median vs SPY | % down | n | median return | median vs SPY | % down | n | median return | median vs SPY | % down | |
| All flags 9,771 events | 7,784 215 pending 路 1,772 n/a | -0.1% trim. mean -1.5% | -4.2% trim. mean -4.1% | 50% | 6,697 1,433 pending 路 1,641 n/a | -5.7% trim. mean -6.0% | -14.5% trim. mean -13.7% | 55% | 5,346 2,951 pending 路 1,474 n/a | -14.5% trim. mean -9.1% | -28.8% trim. mean -22.8% | 58% |
| Auditor change 1,045 events | 841 47 pending 路 157 n/a | -0.3% trim. mean -2.1% | -4.8% trim. mean -5.8% | 50% | 785 116 pending 路 144 n/a | -1.8% trim. mean -3.2% | -11.3% trim. mean -11.6% | 53% | 659 254 pending 路 132 n/a | -5.7% trim. mean -4.6% | -22.1% trim. mean -19.3% | 54% |
| Non-reliance / restatement 163 events | 141 8 pending 路 14 n/a | -8.6% trim. mean -8.5% | -9.7% trim. mean -10.8% | 61% | 121 25 pending 路 17 n/a | -7.3% trim. mean -8.4% | -14.8% trim. mean -16.2% | 61% | 96 53 pending 路 14 n/a | -8.9% trim. mean -2.4% | -21.4% trim. mean -16.2% | 59% |
| Late annual report (NT 10-K) 398 events | 291 9 pending 路 98 n/a | +0.0% trim. mean +3.2% | -5.6% trim. mean -3.4% | 45% | 277 20 pending 路 101 n/a | -6.3% trim. mean -4.9% | -20.1% trim. mean -17.3% | 55% | 257 37 pending 路 104 n/a | -30.0% trim. mean -22.2% | -46.2% trim. mean -39.4% | 64% |
| Late quarterly report (NT 10-Q) 891 events | 645 10 pending 路 236 n/a | +0.0% trim. mean -2.2% | -2.5% trim. mean -3.7% | 47% | 562 118 pending 路 211 n/a | -4.4% trim. mean -10.7% | -10.9% trim. mean -16.9% | 54% | 420 282 pending 路 189 n/a | -4.3% trim. mean -9.2% | -16.9% trim. mean -21.6% | 54% |
| Going-concern doubt 7,274 events | 5,866 141 pending 路 1,267 n/a | -0.2% trim. mean -1.2% | -4.2% trim. mean -3.7% | 51% | 4,952 1,154 pending 路 1,168 n/a | -6.7% trim. mean -5.9% | -14.9% trim. mean -13.4% | 56% | 3,914 2,325 pending 路 1,035 n/a | -16.7% trim. mean -8.9% | -30.3% trim. mean -22.3% | 59% |
| Group | 30 days after | 90 days after | 180 days after | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| n | median return | median vs SPY | % down | n | median return | median vs SPY | % down | n | median return | median vs SPY | % down | |
| Going concern: auditor's report (10-K) 790 events | 625 26 pending 路 139 n/a | -2.4% trim. mean -0.1% | -9.9% trim. mean -6.5% | 53% | 608 51 pending 路 131 n/a | -9.4% trim. mean -4.3% | -20.9% trim. mean -15.7% | 56% | 545 115 pending 路 130 n/a | -25.2% trim. mean -8.5% | -41.8% trim. mean -25.1% | 62% |
| Going concern: management only 6,484 events | 5,241 115 pending 路 1,128 n/a | -0.1% trim. mean -1.4% | -3.5% trim. mean -3.4% | 50% | 4,344 1,103 pending 路 1,037 n/a | -6.2% trim. mean -6.1% | -14.1% trim. mean -13.0% | 56% | 3,369 2,210 pending 路 905 n/a | -16.1% trim. mean -8.9% | -29.2% trim. mean -21.8% | 58% |
| Auditor change: resigned 323 events | 267 12 pending 路 44 n/a | +0.0% trim. mean +0.6% | -4.3% trim. mean -4.1% | 46% | 254 28 pending 路 41 n/a | +2.4% trim. mean +8.0% | -6.2% trim. mean -2.2% | 42% | 233 55 pending 路 35 n/a | +0.0% trim. mean +7.1% | -20.4% trim. mean -10.0% | 50% |
| Auditor change: dismissed 490 events | 403 25 pending 路 62 n/a | -1.3% trim. mean -2.9% | -5.1% trim. mean -6.1% | 52% | 374 63 pending 路 53 n/a | -7.3% trim. mean -7.7% | -14.8% trim. mean -15.3% | 59% | 295 145 pending 路 50 n/a | -7.3% trim. mean -8.1% | -22.2% trim. mean -21.5% | 55% |
| Auditor change: routine 96 events | 72 3 pending 路 21 n/a | -0.7% trim. mean -5.6% | -5.2% trim. mean -9.7% | 51% | 68 10 pending 路 18 n/a | -7.9% trim. mean -11.4% | -16.5% trim. mean -19.4% | 59% | 53 25 pending 路 18 n/a | -16.5% trim. mean -15.2% | -30.2% trim. mean -29.9% | 58% |
| Severity 5 1,970 events | 1,526 59 pending 路 385 n/a | -2.1% trim. mean -1.9% | -9.0% trim. mean -7.0% | 52% | 1,439 160 pending 路 371 n/a | -7.7% trim. mean -5.3% | -19.8% trim. mean -15.9% | 56% | 1,234 385 pending 路 351 n/a | -22.0% trim. mean -9.6% | -38.0% trim. mean -25.9% | 61% |
| Severity 1-3 4,744 events | 3,879 88 pending 路 777 n/a | -0.4% trim. mean -2.9% | -2.6% trim. mean -4.3% | 51% | 3,103 950 pending 路 691 n/a | -5.7% trim. mean -6.8% | -12.3% trim. mean -12.8% | 56% | 2,325 1,810 pending 路 609 n/a | -13.2% trim. mean -9.4% | -25.5% trim. mean -21.5% | 57% |
| Group | 30 days after | 90 days after | 180 days after | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| n | median return | median vs SPY | % down | n | median return | median vs SPY | % down | n | median return | median vs SPY | % down | |
| Nano-cap <$50M 5,388 events | 5,095 118 pending 路 175 n/a | -1.8% trim. mean -0.6% | -5.6% trim. mean -3.5% | 53% | 4,429 764 pending 路 195 n/a | -10.2% trim. mean -4.9% | -18.5% trim. mean -12.6% | 59% | 3,526 1,625 pending 路 237 n/a | -21.8% trim. mean -7.2% | -35.5% trim. mean -21.0% | 61% |
| Micro-cap $50M-300M 2,121 events | 1,961 30 pending 路 130 n/a | +0.1% trim. mean -1.9% | -2.5% trim. mean -4.4% | 44% | 1,637 333 pending 路 151 n/a | +0.0% trim. mean -5.9% | -9.8% trim. mean -13.6% | 48% | 1,314 644 pending 路 163 n/a | -2.5% trim. mean -10.6% | -19.4% trim. mean -24.3% | 52% |
| Small-cap $300M-2B 634 events | 588 10 pending 路 36 n/a | -0.1% trim. mean -3.0% | -3.2% trim. mean -5.4% | 51% | 508 87 pending 路 39 n/a | -1.4% trim. mean -8.4% | -9.6% trim. mean -15.7% | 52% | 411 188 pending 路 35 n/a | -3.5% trim. mean -8.9% | -17.3% trim. mean -22.2% | 52% |
| Mid-cap $2B-10B 112 events | 111 0 pending 路 1 n/a | +0.8% trim. mean -1.1% | -1.5% trim. mean -2.7% | 45% | 100 9 pending 路 3 n/a | +0.9% trim. mean -3.9% | -6.3% trim. mean -10.5% | 47% | 76 32 pending 路 4 n/a | -4.1% trim. mean -5.7% | -20.7% trim. mean -17.5% | 54% |
| Large-cap >$10B 34 events | 27 3 pending 路 4 n/a | -7.6% trim. mean -6.2% | -5.4% trim. mean -7.6% | 59% | 22 9 pending 路 3 n/a | -9.3% trim. mean -4.0% | -19.5% trim. mean -12.2% | 59% | 18 13 pending 路 3 n/a | -8.7% trim. mean -8.1% | -24.4% trim. mean -22.6% | 56% |
Return = last close before the filing date to the first close on or after the window end, using split- and dividend-adjusted end-of-day prices from our market data provider. "vs SPY" subtracts SPY's return over the same dates. Medians are shown because micro-cap returns are extremely skewed (a few penny stocks show +1,000% moves, some likely data artefacts around reverse splits). Below each median is a trimmed mean that drops the top and bottom 5% of returns.
Caveats: companies with no ticker or no price data (often delisted, OTC or shell companies) are counted as n/a and excluded, which likely makes these numbers look better than reality. Events are not independent (the same company can be flagged repeatedly). This is historical description, not a prediction or investment advice.
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